- Dow Jones kicks off the new trading week with overcorrection in both directions.
- US data missed the mark on Monday, sparking a brief rally on rate cut hopes.
- Too-big of a dip in US data, plus a muddy election outlook, reignites recession fears.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly rallied on Monday after a broad miss in key US data sparked a risk rally on renewed rate cut hopes. Still, the steep decline in manufacturing figures proved too much for investors to stomach. Equities gave up early gains and tumbled back into the day’s opening range.
June’s US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) broadly missed the mark on Monday, ticking down to 48.5 from the previous 48.7 and missing the forecast step up to 49.1. The economic indicator has spent a third consecutive month below the key 50.0 level, flashing ongoing warning signs of a broader slowdown creeping up within the US domestic economy.
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid also declined in June, tumbling to a six-month low of 52.1 from the previous 57.0, falling well below the forecast decline to 55.9. With inflationary pressures easing, US markets initially jumped at the outset of the new trading week as investors continue to hope for softening economic figures to push the Federal Reserve (Fed) into an accelerated pace of rate cuts. However, too-steep of a drag in US data points could easily tip the US into a recession that rate cuts won’t overcome, sparking risk-off fears and trimming Monday’s early gains.
Dow Jones news
The Dow Jones is split down the middle on Monday, with half of the index’s constituent securities in the red for the day. Merck & Co Inc. (MRK) leads the gainers, climbing 3.5% and gaining 4.3 points to trade into $128.11 per share. On the low side, Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) fell back 2.66%, falling 13.78 points to $495.48 per share.
Dow Jones technical outlook
Sideways churn is the name of the game for the Dow Jones as the major equity index grinds out a rough near-term lateral channel. The DJIA is cycling just above the 39,000.00 handle as bidders refuse to let the Dow decline but lack the necessary momentum to reclaim higher chart territory.
Daily candles continue to churn out a growing consolidation pattern as the Dow Jones gets strung along the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 38,908.22. The DJIA continues to hold on the high side of late May’s bottom near 38,000.00, but topside momentum remains unable to recover ground back to all-time highs set just north of the 40,000.00 major price handle in May.
Dow Jones five minute chart
Dow Jones daily chart
Economic Indicator
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.Last release: Mon Jul 01, 2024 14:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 48.5
Consensus: 49.1
Previous: 48.7
Source: Institute for Supply Management
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.
Feed news
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
