Slow Disinflation, low Volatility - FastBull (2024)

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Economic

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the Dogecoin-inspired meme coin with the adorable dog mascot, continues to captivate the crypto world. But what's happening with SHIB today, May 16, 2024? Let's delve into the latest news, analyze its price action, and explore what the future might hold for this intriguing cryptocurrency.

Shiba Inu News and Updates

ShibaSwap Ecosystem Growth: The ShibaSwap decentralized exchange (DEX) continues to evolve. Recent updates include the launch of TREAT, a new governance token for the Shiba Inu ecosystem, allowing holders to participate in voting on future developments.

Shiba Inu Burn Portal: The burn portal, designed to reduce the overall circulating supply of SHIB tokens and potentially increase its value, remains a focal point for the community. However, the burn rate needs to significantly increase to have a major impact on price.

Shiboshi NFT Project: The highly anticipated Shiboshi NFT project, featuring 10,000 unique digital collectibles, has been met with mixed reactions. While some see it as a potential revenue stream for the project, others worry it might distract from the core utility of SHIB.

Listing on Major Exchanges: Shiba Inu's presence on major cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Crypto.com continues to be a positive sign for wider adoption and price stability.

Shiba Inu Price Analysis

SHIB has experienced significant volatility since its launch in August 2020. After a meteoric rise in late 2021, fueled by social media hype and celebrity endorsem*nts, the price has corrected in 2024.

Current Price: As of today, SHIB is hovering around $0.000025, which is a significant drop from its all-time high of $0.000088 in late 2021.

Technical Indicators: Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that SHIB is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating a period of potential consolidation.

Support and Resistance Levels: Identifying support and resistance levels can be helpful for understanding potential price movements. The crucial support level for SHIB lies around $0.000020. If the price falls below this level, further losses could occur. The next resistance level to overcome sits at $0.000030.

The Future of Shiba Inu: Meme Coin or More?

The future of Shiba Inu remains uncertain. Here are some factors that could influence its trajectory:

Utility and Use Cases: If the Shiba Inu ecosystem can develop real-world use cases beyond speculation, it could attract more investors and drive long-term price growth.

ShibaSwap Adoption: Widespread adoption of the ShibaSwap DEX and its features like staking and liquidity pools could boost the value of SHIB.

Community Engagement: The passionate and engaged Shiba Inu community is a double-edged sword. While it can drive social media buzz and influence price movements, it can also lead to impulsive decisions and price volatility.

Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market significantly impacts meme coins like SHIB. When the broader market is bullish, SHIB tends to follow suit, and vice versa.

Shiba Inu Today: What Should You Do?

Conduct Your Own Research: Don't base your investment decisions solely on social media hype or celebrity endorsem*nts. Research the Shiba Inu project, its ecosystem, and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Invest Responsibly: The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile. Only invest what you can afford to lose and have a clear risk management strategy in place.

Consider Long-Term Potential: If you believe in the long-term potential of Shiba Inu and its ecosystem, you might consider a long-term investment strategy. However, be prepared for price fluctuations.

Stay Informed: Keeping up with the latest news and developments surrounding Shiba Inu and the cryptocurrency market is crucial for making informed decisions.

The Final Word

Shiba Inu remains a fascinating experiment in the world of cryptocurrencies. While its future remains uncertain, the dedicated community, ongoing development of the ShibaSwap ecosystem, and potential for real-world use cases offer intriguing possibilities. By staying informed, conducting thorough research, and investing responsibly, you can navigate the ever-changing world of Shiba Inu and potentially participate in its future growth.

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

EconomicCentral Bank

The major indices in Europe and the US across traded rangebound near their ATH levels and the US dollar index fluctuated a touch above the 105 level ahead of the US and European inflation updates that will start flowing in today.

The major story of Monday was a renewed rally in Gamestop and AMC shares after Keith Gill, aka, Roaring Kitty, posted on X for the first time since 2021. The moves revived the 2021's meme nostalgia, but the meme stocks will unlikely see their original glory. First, the macroeconomic setting is different: we are in a period of higher interest rates and tight monetary policies where the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks are no longer pumping pandemic-rescue cash into the system. 2. People are not stuck home and savings have melted since the pandemic pile-up. 3. The trading volumes are nowhere close to 2021: around 700'000 options changed hands yesterday, while this number was around 8.5 mio back in 2021. And last but not least, most of the retail traders know that if they are the last the come in, they will lose it all. Of course, because the meme story is irrational, we can't predict what's next. But thank you, Roaring Kitty, for spicing up a day that would've otherwise been long hours of waiting for the US and European inflation numbers.

Let's go back to our beans. The US will release the PPI figures for April today. The core PPI is seen stable at 2.4% on a yearly basis, while headline PPI may have ticked slightly higher, from 2.1% to 2.2% last month. A figure in line, or ideally below expectation, should give a sigh of relief to the Fed doves, let the US dollar soften against major peers and help lift appetite in risk assets, while a figure above expectations will further dampen the Fed cut expectations, give a boost to the US dollar and weigh on stock and bond valuations.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, headline inflation in the Eurozone may have stabilized near 2.4% and core inflation may have eased further to 2.7% from 2.9% printed a month ago.

This week's inflation updates should maintain the 'diverging inflation dynamics' narrative live. The US inflation is seen heating up whereas inflation in the Eurozone and the UK are forecasted to continue their journey to the south – toward the central banks' 2% inflation target. The latter divergence obliges the Fed to postpone its rate cut plans, but keeps the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) on track to cut their rates this summer.

Both the ECB and the BoE say that they are 'data dependent and not Fed dependent'. But that's true under one condition: the euro and sterling should not depreciate significantly against the USD. So far, both the euro and sterling resist surprisingly well to the divergence between the hawkish Fed versus dovish ECB and BoE.

Slight improvement in EZ growth numbers versus a significant slide in the latest growth data partly explain the tempered USD appreciation.

The idea that the Fed's next move is a rate cut – even if it comes a bit later than many have hoped at the start of the year – prevents the USD bulls from coming back forcefully in charge. The Fed also announced to slow QT at the March meeting.

Yet, note that the US dollar index advanced up to 5% since the start of this year and risks are tilted to the upside as long as we don't see the US inflation return to the falling path.

And the reality is that we are all Fed dependent. No matter what the ECB and the BoE say, they can't walk it alone if the US dollar appreciates due to a U-turn in the US inflation. A significant dollar appreciation would boost inflation in the Eurozone and the UK, and bring the ECB and the BoE to review their rate cutting plans beyond summer.

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Commodity

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors eyed fresh drivers, including upcoming U.S. inflation indicators and a monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries this week.

Brent crude futures inched 11 cents higher to $83.47 a barrel at 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 9 cents to $79.21 a barrel.

The benchmark contracts settled higher on Monday on signs of improving demand in the U.S. and China, the world's top two oil consumers.

"Oil prices were slightly higher overnight but remain in a broad holding pattern over the past week, with the lead-up to the upcoming U.S. inflation data keeping some reservations in place," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

Investors are watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index data due on Wednesday for clues to when the Federal Reserve will consider cutting interest rates, which could spur economic growth and therefore oil demand.

"Ahead, the OPEC monthly oil report will be in focus to provide any updates on global oil demand, with some eyes on whether the previous optimistic guidance around the summer travel season will continue to hold," said Yeap.

The latest OPEC monthly oil market report is due later on Tuesday.

The market is also watching wildfires in remote western Canada that could disrupt the country's oil supply.

Firefighters on Monday were racing to contain oneblazein British Columbia and two in Alberta near the heart of the country's oil sands industry.

"Spreading wildfires in Alberta oil sands impose downside risks to our constructive Canada production outlook as massive fires in the same region eight years ago triggered a temporary shutdown of over 1 million bpd oil production," said Goldman Sachs analysts in a note.

No operational disruptions had been reported. But Alex Hodes, analyst at energy brokerage StoneX, said Canada's 3.3 million barrel per day (bpd) production capacity is "very likely to be affected".

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Cryptocurrency

What's happened to the army of retail traders who used to drive bitcoin's biggest rallies?

U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase reported just $56 billion in consumer trading volumes in the first quarter of 2024, when bitcoin leapt to record heights close to $74,000.

While that represents a fledgling recovery in retail interest - almost double the level in the final quarter of last year - it's way below the $133.75 billion quarterly average during the last comparable rally in 2021.

The retail investor was in the driving seat of that wild 2021 ride, as COVID lockdowns, cheap money and personal savings drove up prices of "meme" stocks and spawned bouts of intense FOMO, or fear of missing out. By contrast, the latest rally was a more solemn, institutional affair propelled by the birth of U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

"It's the million-dollar question in crypto right now - when will retail traders come back?" said Michael Rinko, analyst at Delphi Digital.

In another sign of the retail retreat, Google trends data shows search interest in the term "bitcoin" in March was only half of the peak in 2021.

Some small-time investors are still nursing the chills of the more than two-year long crypto winter, when bitcoin stayed limp at levels between $20,000 to $30,000.

Billions of customer funds were also trapped in the implosion of high profile crypto companies, including Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network and FTX, whose founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for fraud.

"The key force behind the reduced activity stems from lessons learned throughout the harrowing year, which was 2022," said Vetle Lunde, analyst at K33 Research.

"The contagion and collapse of a vast portion of retail-facing lending platforms illustrated that considerable risks were hiding behind the attractive yields."

Some market participants reckon bitcoin, which accounts for more than half of the $2.26 trillion digital assets market capitalization, will be hit by a period of rotation as investors take profits on the coin and decide to buy riskier altcoins such as the no. 2 crypto ether and others.

Indeed, ether lags its larger rival bitcoin and is yet to exceed its 2021 peak.

"Instead of just blindly jumping into crypto in whatever seems to be hot at the time, people are now focused much more on what is a secure and safe asset to invest in," said John Glover, chief investment officer at crypto lending platform Ledn.

It remains to be seen if or when speculative crypto traders will return to the market in force.

Right now, bitcoin's tumble to $62,809, 15 per cent below its mid-March record high is serving as a reminder of the sharp volatility and risk that comes with the asset.

"The meme in crypto is - bitcoin needs to hit $100,000 for retail to come back," said Rinko at Delphi Digital. "Who knows if that's the magic number but we do need to get to a number that really ignites FOMO."

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

EconomicCentral BankForex

Yen's decline persisted in Asian session, continuing to reverse its strong gains from earlier in the month. Traders seem confident that Japan will not intervene as long as Yen remains above 160 level against Dollar, with no apparent determination to push it through 150. This range appears to be set for the near term.

Japan's response to Yen's selloff has been restrained. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated his commitment to closely monitoring the currency markets and taking all possible measures against excessive, speculative moves. He emphasized the importance of close communication and coordination BoJ.

Elsewhere in the currency markets, Sterling ranks as the second strongest currency of the day after Dollar. The Pound is anticipating today's UK employment data, with particular attention on wage growth. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has left the door open for a June rate cut, but some economists believe the central bank will not rush into a decision until the risk of wage-driven inflation resurgence is mitigated. Currently, Aussie follows Yen as the second weakest currency, with Loonie trailing behind. Euro and Swiss Franc are positioned in the middle.

Technically, EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8529 stalled ahead of 0.8643 resistance as well as medium term falling trend line. Price actions from 0.8497 are seen as a corrective pattern. Break of 0.8585 support will add to the case that larger down trend is ready to resume and target 0.8529 support first.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.09%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.13%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.12%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.06%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0176 at 0.959. Overnight, DOW fell -0.21%. S&P 500 fell -0.02%. NASDAQ rose 0.29%. 10-year yield fell -0.023 to 4.481.

Fed's Jefferson: Restrictive rates necessary amid slow disinflation progress

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicated that with the economy showing robust job growth, Fedcan focus "even more so" on ensuring that inflation returns to its 2% target. Jefferson acknowledged the slow progress in reducing inflation, asserting that it justifies keeping the policy rate elevated.

"In light of the attenuation in progress, in terms of getting inflation down to our target, it is appropriate that we maintain the policy rate in restrictive territory," Jefferson noted.

He reiterated that the Fed is vigilant in seeking clear evidence of inflation decreasing to the desired level before considering any policy rate adjustments.

Fed's approach is influenced by the varied perspectives among policymakers, which Jefferson believes enriches policy discussions. However, he cautioned that increased communication from Fed might sometimes lead to greater uncertainty about its policies, rather than clarity.

IMF recommends gradual approach for future BoJ rate hikes

IMF projects Japan's economic growth to continue, with a noticeable increase in consumption anticipated later this year. According to areport, Japan's growth rate is expected to decelerate to 0.9% in 2024, largely due to the fading impact of one-off factors that boosted growth in 2023.

The report highlights that consumption will pick up in the latter half of 2024 and into 2025, driven by rising nominal wages following a strong Shunto settlement in 2024 and a decrease in headline inflation that will boost real wages.

IMF foresees core inflation gradually declining as the impact of higher import prices diminishes. However, core inflation is expected to remain above BoJ's 2% target until the second half of 2025.

In light of these developments, IMF suggests that further increases in BoJ's short-term policy rate should "proceed at a gradual pace" and be "data­dependent", considering the balanced risks to inflation and the mixed signals from recent economic data.

IMF emphasizes the importance of Japan's adherence to a "flexible exchange rate regime", which will play a crucial role in absorbing economic shocks and supporting the central bank's focus on maintaining price stability.

Looking ahead

UK employment data is a major focus in European session. Swiss PPI, Germany ZEW economic sentiment and CPI final, will be released too. Later in the day, US PPI will be the highlight.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, is in progress for 157.98 resistance. On the downside, break of 155.25 minor support will suggest that the third leg has started, and turn bias back to the downside for 151.86 support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Source: ActionForex

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Stocks

Asian shares hovered around 15-month highs on Tuesday and the dollar was firm ahead of highly anticipated U.S. inflation data, while Japanese bonds were squeezed as the central bank pulled back a little on its bond buying programme.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed slightly and hit its highest since early 2023 in morning trade, as a strong rally in Hong Kong shares extended into a fourth consecutive week.

Japan's Nikkeiwas flat. Benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yields rose one basis point to 0.95%, the highest yield since November, and five-year Japanese yields hit 0.555%, the highest since 2011.

World stocks and the S&P 500 were steady overnight, poised just below record peaks. A survey released on Monday by theNew York Fed showed Americans see inflation a year from now at 3.3%, higher than they did a month earlier, and later on Tuesday U.S. producer price figures will be closely watched.

Alibaba will most likely report results later on Tuesday.

The main focus this week is on Wednesday's actual U.S. CPI figures, to see whether some upside surprises in the first quarter were a blip or a worrying trend. Expectations are for core CPI to slow from an annual 3.8% in March to 3.6% for April.

"This would be good, but not enough to confirm Fed easing plans in (the third quarter)," Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon, said in a note to clients.

In the currency market, nerves and the inflation expectation survey were enough to keep the dollar from falling. Dollar/yen hit its highest since the start of the month, when traders reckoned Japanese authorities were intervening to buy yen.

The yen traded as soft as 156.4 to the dollar. The euro was steady at $1.0786 and the Australian and New Zealand dollars kept to recent ranges, the Aussie at $0.6606 and kiwi at $0.6015.

HANG SENG SURGES

In China, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is up 30% from January's lows and has surged nearly 20% in a month.

News and data in recent days included a third straight monthlyrise in consumer prices, better than expectedimportsdata, record low credit growth and marketing of a trillion yuan in long-dataspecial treasury bonds.

Investors see positive demand signals and signs that as monetary policy is reaching its limits, and with borrowers shy, authorities are planning to spend to support growth.

"Walking through the recent policy announcements, including the expansion of stock connect and encouraging leading enterprises to list in Hong Kong, it is hard not to come to the conclusion that top management in China intends to reinstate Hong Kong's role as an IPO hub," said OCBC analysts.

In New Zealand, inflation expectations have dropped, data published on Monday showed, and construction supplier Fletcher Building cut its outlook, citing a housing slowdown.

Fletcher's Australia-listed shares hit a two-decade low on Tuesday. Australia's government is expected to boast another surplus in itsannual budgetdue on Tuesday.

Shares in bellwether Australian automotive equipment seller GUDleapt 9% after it forecast meeting expectations.

In Japan, the central bank announced its first cut to bond buying operations since December on Monday - a surprise hawkish signal to investors that drove selling in the market.

Two-year Japanese yields were untraded early on Tuesday but hit their highest since 2009. U.S. Treasuries were steady in Asia trade to leave 10-year yields at 4.49% and two-year yields at 4.86%.

The so-called meme stocks, which swung wildly after finding popularity in retail trading blogs and social media posts, leapt to life overnight after user "Roaring Kitty", credited with sparking the 2021 frenzy, returned to post on X.com.

Videogame store operator GameStop rose 74%. Oil and gold were broadly steady with Brent crude futures at $83.40 a barrel and spot gold at $2,339 an ounce.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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